U.S. Economic Outlook: Moderate Growth Likely If Compromise
The central theme of MAPI’s forecast for the next five years is that we believe the U.S. economy is in the midst of a transition period from sluggish growth to a longer period of moderate growth. For a smooth transition, politicians must (1) compromise and not go over the fiscal cliff, (2) raise the debt ceiling early next year, and (3) agree on a plan for meaningful long-term federal deficit reduction.
Over the next five years, we forecast that employment will grow at an average 1.7 percent annual rate and inflation-adjusted consumer after-tax income will increase 2.7 percent a year. The five-year growth rate for GDP is 2.7 percent a year, a subpar expansion following a deep recession.
Download PowerPoint slides here (members only).
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
The MAPI Foundation
Manufacturing executives, policymakers, the media, and the association community rely on the MAPI Foundation’s unbiased research, forecasting, and rich analyses to gain unbiased insight into the challenges and opportunities facing the manufacturing sector. Our highly respected economists and business analysts use proprietary models to generate regular forecasts for global manufacturing activity. They also produce data-driven policy analyses that provide insights into major topics influencing manufacturing competitiveness, including energy, tax, the labor market, global trade, innovation, and regulations. Our team regularly delivers keynote presentations at major industry events and board meetings, and for major media outlets we serve as a trusted expert on the manufacturing economy.
The foundation is the research affiliate of the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation. Founded in 1933, MAPI contributes to the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing through professional development and executive education. Rather than lobbying, we leverage our position as a thought leader to raise awareness of what U.S. manufacturing needs to remain innovative, productive, and best in class.