U.S. Economic Outlook for 2013 and 2014
MAPI believes that the fourth quarter decline in economic activity is not the beginning of another recession or a harbinger of one. On the contrary, the end-of-year weakness was a correction in production to temporary surges in the third quarter.
We predict that manufacturing production will increase 2.2 percent in 2013 and 3.6 percent in 2014, versus 1.8 percent and 2.8 percent growth, respectively, for the economy as a whole.
The bottom line is that stronger growth in business fixed investment and residential construction is offset by government spending austerity. Therefore, GDP growth closely matches the modest gains in consumer spending in 2013 when taxes were raised. Our forecast for 2014 is for an acceleration in consumer, business investment, and residential spending, but no change in state and local government spending. A negative trade contribution and federal government austerity will continue to dampen growth in 2014.
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Wednesday, February 13, 2013
The MAPI Foundation
Manufacturing executives, policymakers, the media, and the association community rely on the MAPI Foundation’s unbiased research, forecasting, and rich analyses to gain unbiased insight into the challenges and opportunities facing the manufacturing sector. Our highly respected economists and business analysts use proprietary models to generate regular forecasts for global manufacturing activity. They also produce data-driven policy analyses that provide insights into major topics influencing manufacturing competitiveness, including energy, tax, the labor market, global trade, innovation, and regulations. Our team regularly delivers keynote presentations at major industry events and board meetings, and for major media outlets we serve as a trusted expert on the manufacturing economy.
The foundation is the research affiliate of the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation. Founded in 1933, MAPI contributes to the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing through professional development and executive education. Rather than lobbying, we leverage our position as a thought leader to raise awareness of what U.S. manufacturing needs to remain innovative, productive, and best in class.