As the U.S. trade deficit in manufactures rose in the third quarter while the Chinese surplus remained flat, it incurred an estimated trade-related loss of 150,000 American jobs, and heading toward more than 600,000 for the calendar year.
The U.S. trade deficit in manufactures soared by 16% in 2015, resulting in a loss of 600,000 American manufacturing jobs. Sixty percent of the global deficit was with China, with U.S. manufactured imports from China 5.8 times larger than U.S. exports to China.
The rules-based multilateral trade and financial system created at Bretton Woods in 1944 has been crumbling over the past decade. The WTO trading system to reduce trade barriers on a reciprocal, most-favored-nation basis has been replaced by a spreading network of bilateral and regional preferential trade agreements. And far more threatening, the IMF financial system, centered on convertible, non-manipulated exchange rates, has been undermined by rampant exchange rate mercantilism, principally by China and other Asian nations.
In the first quarter, the U.S. trade deficit in manufactures rose by 4%, or $7 billion, compared with 2015. This is a big improvement from the 14% increase for calendar 2015, but still resulted in a trade-related loss of 50,000 American manufacturing jobs.
Global Economy, Competitiveness, Government Policy, Economic Environment, Regional Economic Integration, Money & Finance, Currency
This report surveys four types of proposals aimed at solving the EMU’s various crises. Only one of the four stands a realistic chance of being implemented in the next decade. What the EMU needs is an immediate implementation of a set of minimal conditions for the survival of the common currency. The paper delves into individual policy planks and assesses their chances of adoption in the next decade. The common currency faces long odds of survival beyond the next few years.
Global Economy, Competitiveness, Foreign Trade, Imports & Exports
This is my final MAPI Foundation report, on U.S. and Chinese trade in manufactures during the first half of 2016, as I am retiring from MAPI at the end of August. The report also provides a breakout of U.S. bilateral trade with China and Mexico, which has become a contentious electoral issue.
The last two years represent a watershed for anti-corruption developments and enforcement activity. MAPI recently released the last part of a series on anti-corruption efforts in Brazil, Russia, India, and China. It is hoped that the series, authored by Frederick T.