Latin America Manufacturing Outlook: A Cyclical Rebound in 2013

Friday, January 11, 2013

MAPI predicts manufacturing production in Latin America will post a weak 0.5 percent growth rate in 2012, dragged down by a manufacturing recession in Brazil and a sudden stop in output growth in Argentina. Mexico’s manufacturers are in relatively better shape, benefiting from solid U.S. demand and resilient domestic demand. Conditions are set for solid growth in 2013, although uncertainties in the global outlook pose risks to our estimates. We expect our index to grow 4 percent in 2013 as Brazil’s manufacturing output rebounds because of a host of tax breaks intended to spur demand, deplete inventory, and drive production. Mexico's manufacturing sector will continue to expand, although at a more modest pace. Argentina’s factories will benefit from stronger demand from Brazil.

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