Kris Bledowski, senior economist at MAPI, believes that Europe’s second recession probably hit bottom in the second or third quarter of this year. Net exports are the main contributor to the turnaround, mostly because of falling imports. An inventory swing provides a secondary boost. On the negative side, fixed capital formation is still weak while consumers remain on the sidelines. He also discusses the malaise in construction markets, regional differences in manufacturing performance, the lack of inflation pressures, high unemployment, and excess capacity in Europe, and concludes with what to expect from political leaders in the near future.
Download PowerPoint slides here. For members only.