Expect economic growth to be above trend through 2019 and in line with trend through 2021. The probability of recession in the next few quarters has eased and remains below 10%. Labor shortages are forecast to persist through 2021 even when wages and benefit costs rise rather moderately by historical standards. Slow productivity growth over the past nine years helps explain why relatively strong employment growth has not translated into higher wages. In large part inflation has been following the pattern of energy prices. Capacity utilization in manufacturing has been moving higher over the past year, but is still below full utilization. The Federal Funds Rate is expected to be at the top of the neutral range by the end of 2019 and slightly above neutral in 2020 and 2021.