MAPI Economist Yingying Xu provides the forecast for China’s economic growth in 2012 and 2013. She explains why China’s economic growth will slow down, and why the more likely case is for the country to observe a soft (rather than hard) landing. The growth pace of industrial value-added decelerated from 14 percent in 2011 to around 9 percent in the third quarter. Even this number may be overreported considering the dramatic growth deceleration in power production, which is highly correlated with industrial production. In October, however, the growth pace for both industrial production and power generation accelerated slightly, showing some encouraging signs of upturns. She also provides a forecast for 2013 industrial growth in China.
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