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Economic Growth

Don reviews the latest data for the Purchasing Managers Index, manufacturing production by industry, export and import growth, and trends in manufacturing employment.
Regardless of how Greece resolves its payment crisis in the next few weeks, there is bound to be a knock-on effect on financial markets. This in turn will indirectly affect business conditions in the foreseeable future, primarily in the Eurozone but broadly on the entire continent. An all-out...
U.S. Industrial Outlook: Growth Decelerates in 2015Need to Know . . .We forecast manufacturing production growth of 2.5% this year (after 3.5% growth in 2014)The relatively slow rebound in economic activity following the weather-related downturn is symptomatic of less growth momentum this...
Greece will need either a third bailout program (disbursements from the second one are suspended) or a moratorium on payments. Otherwise it will gradually descend into default. The country is running a primary fiscal surplus (excess of receipts over outlays before interest payments) so the...
The most recent data on industrial production, capacity utilization, orders for capital goods, and manufacturing employment point to a weak first quarter for manufacturing activity. Given slower growth in China, very slow growth in the Eurozone, the rising value of the dollar, and the fall in the...
Need to Know . . .Contrary to many analysts’ expectations, a sustained period of lower oil prices will likely have a net negative impact on Latin AmericaMajor energy companies are postponing or even canceling the development of the most expensive oil and gas projects in the region because of...
I just came back from the annual meeting of the American Economic Association (held this year in Boston). The conference pulls in the largest number of economists in the world for an event of this type. It offered a cornucopia of insights, some of which I chose to condense here.The near-term...
Need to Know . . .The manufacturing sector entered the expansion phase of the business cycle during October 201411 of 25 manufacturing industries—accounting for nearly two-thirds of the sector's value-added—had October 2014 production levels equal to or greater than their pre-recession levelsThe...
Earlier this week I presented at TRENDS Annual Nonprofit Forecast and Risk Review at the University Club in D.C. (download my presentation slides here). The event focused on risk management strategies for 2015 and a review of association executive plans and sentiment. I joined speakers from the...
Need to Know . . .Brazil’s economy is in stagflation mode—a mix of recession and inflation. Manufacturing activity decreased 6% over the last six months and business and consumer confidence plummetedA confidence shock is needed to address flagging business sentiment and to start building the bridge...

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