<< Back

Economic Growth

The most recent data on industrial production, capacity utilization, orders for capital goods, and manufacturing employment point to a weak first quarter for manufacturing activity. Given slower growth in China, very slow growth in the Eurozone, the rising value of the dollar, and the fall in the...
U.S. Industrial Outlook: Strong Dollar Offsets Low Energy PricesNeed to Know . . .Manufacturing production is forecast to grow 3.7% in 2015 and 3.6% in 2016Low energy prices allow consumers to buy more non-energy goods and services and lower manufacturing costs. The offset is that low prices will...
Need to Know . . .Contrary to many analysts’ expectations, a sustained period of lower oil prices will likely have a net negative impact on Latin AmericaMajor energy companies are postponing or even canceling the development of the most expensive oil and gas projects in the region because of...
I just came back from the annual meeting of the American Economic Association (held this year in Boston). The conference pulls in the largest number of economists in the world for an event of this type. It offered a cornucopia of insights, some of which I chose to condense here.The near-term...
Need to Know . . .The manufacturing sector entered the expansion phase of the business cycle during October 201411 of 25 manufacturing industries—accounting for nearly two-thirds of the sector's value-added—had October 2014 production levels equal to or greater than their pre-recession levelsThe...
U.S. Industrial Outlook: Widespread Growth AheadNeed to Know . . .Manufacturing production is forecast to grow 3.5% in 2015, 3.9% in 2016, and 3.1% in 2017Job gains are the core driver of economic growthInvestment growth drivers include natural gas infrastructure, the housing supply chain,...
European Industrial Outlook: A Hesitant RecoverySummary of Findings and ForecastsThe recovery in Europe is sapped by a paucity of fiscal impulses and near-absence of centrally managed monetary stimulus. Economic sentiment has been treading water for half a year.If recovery kicked in in 2014, it...
Earlier this week I presented at TRENDS Annual Nonprofit Forecast and Risk Review at the University Club in D.C. (download my presentation slides here). The event focused on risk management strategies for 2015 and a review of association executive plans and sentiment. I joined speakers from the...
Latin America Manufacturing OutlookMexico's Positive Cycle Contrasts With Brazil's Worrisome ProspectsNeed to Know . . .The MAPI Foundation manufacturing forecast for Latin America has been revised downward from our July 2014 report; we predict no growth in 2014 and a still shy 1.8% in 2015In 2014...
Need to Know . . .Brazil’s economy is in stagflation mode—a mix of recession and inflation. Manufacturing activity decreased 6% over the last six months and business and consumer confidence plummetedA confidence shock is needed to address flagging business sentiment and to start building the bridge...

Pages