MAPI’s global report for May 2012 analyzes the recent economic performance of key regions and offers a forecast of world growth, the dollar, and U.S. import and export demand. A renewed recession and reignited financial turmoil in the Eurozone, significant slowing in large emerging market economies, and continued subpar performance in the U.S. virtually guarantee that worldwide anxiety over the near-term economic outlook will not abate anytime soon. The most rational model of recent global activity would suggest that the post-crisis evolution is continuing to unfold in much the same way that it began in late 2009 and early 2010 when the focus of concern partially shifted from the stability of private markets to worries about public financial tremors. Clearly, the unpredictability of a multi-layered mess in the Eurozone and the possibility of a structural as well as cyclical slowdown in both China and India foreshadow the sluggishness and instability that will be facts of life in the global economy for some time to come.
Global Outlook: The Gray Area Between Crisis and Recovery
May 21, 2012