MAPI Economic Consultant Jeremy Leonard develops an empirical model to examine the behavior of prices of crude oil and major industrial metals in the 2000s and confirms that China has become an important determinant of global commodity prices since joining the World Trade Organization in December 2001. Nonetheless, any given percent increase in industrial production in the G7 nations actually has a significantly larger impact on commodity prices than a similar percent increase in China, which implies that an acceleration of economic recovery in the industrialized world will add considerable upward pressure to both crude oil and metals prices. Based on forecasts of relevant macroeconomic variables, the model suggests that prices of crude oil, aluminum, and zinc are expected to remain close to current levels through the end of 2011, while those for copper and nickel are forecast to rise considerably.
Model of Key Commodity Prices Quantifying the Impact of China
Wednesday, January 19, 2011