Donald A. Norman, Ph.D.
Donald A. Norman, Ph.D. |
04/24/2013 |
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In July we will learn that that we are better off than we realized—at least on paper. A recent article in the Financial Times reported on an impending revision of U.S. GDP statistics by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) that will raise the measured GDP by 3 percent. The revisions will also be reflected in historical series of GDP statistics.
The reason behind this upward revision is that intangible investments will now be capitalized rather...
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Donald A. Norman, Ph.D. |
04/11/2013 |
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The MAPI Composite Business Outlook Index was 56 in March, up from 55 in December. This quarter’s increase, while small, is the first increase since June 2010, when the index reached a record high of 81. The investment indexes and the Profit Margin Index also increased. Most of the other indexes, however, fell. Nonetheless, the small rise in the composite index, coupled with the improvement in both investment indexes and the fact that the Annual...
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Donald A. Norman, Ph.D. |
03/01/2013 |
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Consumers were on a roll in December. Disposable personal income (adjusted for inflation) increased by 2.7 percent and the personal savings rate increased to 6.4 percent, the highest rate of savings since mid-2009 when the economy was at its lowest point during the recession. The Bureau of Economics (BEA) February report on personal income is a reminder of how fast economic statistics can turnaround. Personal income fell by 3.6 percent in...
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Donald A. Norman, Ph.D. |
02/12/2013 |
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In the last few years, one topic that has come up frequently in roundtable sessions at CFO and Financial Council meetings is transfer pricing in developing countries. In addition, both Councils have had presentations on transfer pricing. The problem of repatriating profits earned in these countries is one consequence of transfer pricing issues.
A recent article in The Wall Street Journal by Maxwell Murphy provides an excellent overview of the...
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Donald A. Norman, Ph.D. |
01/29/2013 |
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The Federal Reserve Board has attempted to provide a stimulus to the economy by expanding the money supply in recent years. It has been doing this by purchasing mortgage-backed and U.S. Treasury securities in order to keep the short-term rate of interest at, essentially, zero. This also has had the impact of reducing longer-term rates of interest. On the surface, it seems logical that this policy would stimulate activity. After all, the lower...
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Donald A. Norman, Ph.D. |
01/10/2013 |
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In going through books and materials stored in a MAPI office, I found a first edition of Paul Samuelson’s text, Economics: An Introductory Analysis, published in 1948. Samuelson was the first American to win the Nobel Prize in Economics. He made an incredible number of contributions to economics, many of them highly mathematical. Samuelson died in 2009, but his textbook (coauthored with William Nordhaus of Yale University in later editions) is...
Categories: Macroeconomic Conditions
Donald A. Norman, Ph.D. |
10/25/2012 |
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The manufacturing sector is showing resiliency as new orders for manufactured goods increased by 9.9 percent in September, reversing a 13.1 percent decline in August according the latest report by the Census Bureau. Much of the September increase was due to new orders for transportation equipment which increased by 31.7 percent. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.0 percent, reversing the 2.1 percent decline from July to August....
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Donald A. Norman, Ph.D. |
10/24/2012 |
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An interesting article by Justin Rao and David Reiley in the latest Journal of Economic Perspectives examines the economics of spam.* Those who have never had to deal with spam advertising pharmaceuticals or Rolex watches, or seeking to bestow a free gift probably do not have an email account. As the authors point out, every day about 100 billion emails are sent to valid email addresses around the world, but mostly to email addresses in the...
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Donald A. Norman, Ph.D. |
10/11/2012 |
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The MAPI Composite Business Index fell from 61 in June to 56 in September. This is the ninth straight quarter that the index has fallen. The individual indexes also fell and thus we have a consistent picture of slowing manufacturing sector activity, something not all that surprising given recent data on the durable goods orders and the industrial production index. Nonetheless, it is important to stress that all of the individual indexes remain...
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Donald A. Norman, Ph.D. |
09/11/2012 |
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The housing sector has been the poster child for the part of the economy that has lagged during the economic recovery. It has suffered from falling prices, a very low level of housing starts, and a large number of foreclosures. Conditions in the sector have affected a number of manufacturing industries because their products are used in construction and/or are purchased in conjunction with houses. After flat-lining for three years, however,...
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Donald A. Norman, Ph.D. |
06/21/2012 |
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The latest economic update of the manufacturing sector shows growth slowing from a relatively strong pace just a few months ago. In March, manufacturing production fell by 0.6 percent. It rebounded in April, growing by 0.7 percent, but declined again in May when it fell by 0.4 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2011, manufacturing production grew by an annual rate of 5.6 percent. In the first quarter of 2012, the production grew by an annualized...
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Donald A. Norman, Ph.D. |
06/04/2012 |
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My recent Issues in Brief paper, Reversal of Fortune, discussed the dramatic turnaround in the U.S. oil situation and the implications it has for the economy and the manufacturing sector. A subsequent article in the Washington Post by Juan Forero points out that this turnaround is taking place in South America and Canada as well as in the United States. The expansion of production is characterized as a “geopolitical shift” by one energy CEO in...
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Donald A. Norman, Ph.D. |
04/12/2012 |
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The MAPI Composite Business Outlook Index was 65 in March, down from 66 in December 2011. The index remains above 50, pointing to continued expansion over the next three to six months. The index has declined steadily since reaching a record high of 81 in June 2010, although the rate of decline has been relatively slow over the past year. Most of the individual indexes increased in March. Further, the composite index and all the individual...
Categories: Manufacturing Trends and Overview, U.S. Manufacturing