Cliff Waldman
Cliff Waldman |
05/15/2013 |
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Discussions of the slow U.S. jobs rebound often overlook the vital issues of entrepreneurial dynamism and the health of the small business sector. These are critical omissions. Research supports the importance of new businesses for employment recovery and employment expansion. Further, the health of the small business sector is well known to be of importance for general economic vitality. U.S. Census Bureau data show that small companies...
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Cliff Waldman |
05/15/2013 |
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In a disturbing report, the Federal Reserve announced that U.S. industrial production (manufacturing, mining, and utilities) contracted by 0.6 percent after strong gains in February and March.
The manufacturing picture, which constitutes the lion’s share of industrial output, is bleaker. U.S. factory production declined by 0.4 percent in April and has now contracted in three of the past four months. The output backslide in April was broad...
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Cliff Waldman |
05/03/2013 |
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Spring swoons and volatile expectations aside, the all too slow recovery in the beaten but not defeated U.S. job market continues. Signs of the slowdown in economic growth that we have experienced since the beginning of the year made their way into the April report as average weekly hours of all employees fell and as construction employment, which has been a new and important bright spot, pulled back, albeit slightly. The financial markets, on...
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Cliff Waldman |
05/01/2013 |
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While I’m not advocating a national holiday, it is nonetheless important for economic agents in the business community and in the financial markets to fully appreciate the vital importance that the world’s major central banks have played during the crisis of 2008-2009 and currently in the frustrating post-crisis era. When it became clear that the global financial system was close to cracking, Ben Bernanke, a noted scholar of the Great Depression...
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Cliff Waldman |
04/24/2013 |
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However you look at it, the March report on orders for long-lasting (durable) goods is disturbingly weak and consistent with recent data that suggest a significant slowdown in the pace of U.S. economic growth.Total new orders fell by a sharp 5.7 percent, and are down 0.1 percent on a year-over-year, year-to-date basis. Removing the volatile transportation component, new orders fell by 1.4 percent on the heels of a 1.7 percent decline in February...
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Cliff Waldman |
03/08/2013 |
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Glimmers of light can be found in the February employment report. The modest rebound in the housing market and its impact on construction employment is the best news that U.S. workers have had in five years. Since September 2012, the average monthly construction employment gain has been an encouraging 30,000-not, by any means, a boom but certainly indicative of a convincing recovery. Further, elements of the jobs picture finally appear to be...
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Cliff Waldman |
02/20/2013 |
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If the prospect of a return to the office after a long holiday weekend perhaps solicits a yawn, an intriguing article in the new edition of the Harvard Business Review might just make you look a little bit differently at your colleagues. They may be up to something. Those coffee pot conversations or after work drinks may be indicative of carefully developed efforts to bring new ideas to life, ideas that could have impact within your company and...
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Cliff Waldman |
02/15/2013 |
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There is nothing like a splash of cold water in the middle of winter. After staging an impressive recovery from a destructive Northeast storm, the disturbingly weak performance of U.S. manufacturing output in January is a sobering reminder of the world’s considerable economic challenges. As reported by the Federal Reserve, total industrial production (manufacturing, mining, and utilities) slipped by 0.1 percent but manufacturing output...
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Cliff Waldman |
02/01/2013 |
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Like most analysts, I have been combing through the January jobs report to find some evidence of a real turn in the sluggish employment picture. It’s a new year. We cleared the fiscal cliff, albeit with more budgetary chaos to come. Further, the global economy, while not strong, has certainly stabilized from the worrisome posture that was seen through much of 2012. And most of the effects of Hurricane Sandy have likely passed. Some glimmers of...
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Cliff Waldman |
01/28/2013 |
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While the U.S. manufacturing sector ended a difficult 2012 with a stellar top-line number on new orders for long-lasting goods of 4.6 percent, the mixed picture showed evidence of both a stabilizing but still weak global economy and the great uncertainty surrounding the U.S. budget situation. Excluding the volatile transportation component, orders were up a still solid 1.3 percent and, in a positive for U.S. manufacturing prospects, demand was...
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Cliff Waldman |
01/16/2013 |
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As the distortions from Hurricane Sandy abate, it becomes increasingly clear that a still weak and uncertain global economic picture and a contentious U.S. policy climate have not entirely stopped the U.S. manufacturing recovery in its tracks. The Federal Reserve reports that while total industrial output (manufacturing, mining, and utilities) grew by 0.3 percent during December, growth in the manufacturing sector was a much stronger 0.8 percent...
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Cliff Waldman |
01/13/2013 |
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Water played a large part in Abraham Lincoln’s early life. As a young man, he spent a great deal of time ferrying people and produce on the Mississippi River and the Great Lakes. Such an occupation certainly had its dangers. As described in a revealing article in the Smithsonian Magazine, at least twice Lincoln’s boats ran aground on sandbars or got hung up on other impediments. Overcoming such obstacles was not easy, involving, among other...
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Cliff Waldman |
01/04/2013 |
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If observers of the U.S. labor market were hoping for a quiet end to 2012, they got it. The data in the December jobs report were remarkably steady. The unemployment rate, at 7.8 percent, was unchanged from November. The non-farm payroll job gain was 155,000, in line with the 153,000 average for 2012. The civilian labor force participation rate, which is the share of the civilian population either employed or looking for a job, was also ...
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Cliff Waldman |
12/20/2012 |
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Amidst seemingly endless global economic weakness and uncertainty, signs of an altered world order might be emerging. Poland’s strength could point to augmented economic dominance for Eastern Europe as the Eurozone fights through a lengthy process of post-crisis adjustment. East Asian countries outside of China could play a more significant role in that critical region as the middle kingdom’s long-term growth slows.
An awakening Africa, whose...
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Cliff Waldman |
12/07/2012 |
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Anyone who was expecting the November jobs report to be full of confusing distortions, mostly due to Hurricane Sandy, was pleasantly surprised. The data are credible and the picture remains clear. Part of the reason for this triumph of measurement over adversity is the professionalism of U.S. statistical agencies. Under the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) definitions, it’s difficult for even severe weather events to significantly impact...
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Cliff Waldman |
11/27/2012 |
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Uncertainty is the word of the day for U.S. manufacturers as problems continue to build in key regions of the world while a budget drama with a questionable ending plays out in Washington. The economic impact is most clearly seen in the significant recent weakening of capital spending, a broad and often volatile category of business expenditures. Capital spending is something of a misunderstood variable and in the 1930s, John Maynard Keynes...
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Cliff Waldman |
11/16/2012 |
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Even compared to the difficult weather events of recent years, Hurricane Sandy was especially cruel. The powerful hybrid mega-storm resulted from a confluence of factors so odd that the many victims in the heavily populated northeast must have wondered what they’ve done to deserve such a fate. In some cases individual lives and communities will be affected for months and even years to come. Tragically, there were fatalities. Coming amidst a...
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Cliff Waldman |
11/06/2012 |
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As Americans go to the polls, economics is likely on the mind of virtually every voter. It was only four short years ago that the U.S. economy nearly fell into the type of deflationary spiral that created the tragic early years of the 1930s. Those who were fortunate enough not to lose a job, a home, or a significant portion of their wealth during those fateful days of 2008 and 2009 probably know someone who did. The country is still shaking....
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Cliff Waldman |
11/02/2012 |
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The trouble with persistently slow job growth is that seemingly positive trends resulting from labor market advancement can quickly reverse. While the employment report for October revealed modest acceleration in private sector hiring activity, to a net gain of 184,000, the pace of private payroll growth remains well below that of prior recovery periods.
Labor market sluggishness has been persistent. Total nonfarm employment gains have averaged...
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Cliff Waldman |
10/05/2012 |
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The significant decline in the unemployment rate, from 8.1 to 7.8 percent, is certainly the big story in the September jobs report. It happened in spite of a sizable increase in the labor force, the first in three months, and a modest uptick in the labor force participation rate. Against the backdrop of persistently slow job growth, how did we manage such an impressive one-month decline in the jobless rate to the lowest level since January...
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Cliff Waldman |
09/13/2012 |
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Ben Bernanke and his colleagues took out their binoculars during the past two days and saw a world full of pain. The frustrating sluggishness of the U.S. economic recovery is becoming more entrenched as GDP growth slips below an already weak two percent. As a result, a tepid labor market recovery, in which job creation was just barely keeping pace with new labor force entrants, slowed even further, virtually guaranteeing an unacceptably high...
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Cliff Waldman |
09/07/2012 |
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If there was any question that the world economic slowdown is now impacting the U.S. labor market, it should be dispelled by the August jobs report, which revealed some bad news about the globally-sensitive factory sector. Manufacturing employment, which had an impressive average monthly gain of 25,000 between January and July of 2012, fell by 15,000 in August. The Bureau of Labor Statistics notes a seasonal distortion in transportation as...
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Cliff Waldman |
09/04/2012 |
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The world economic picture is darkening. Recent reports for major regions indicate that the probability of a global recession has risen significantly in recent weeks. The Eurozone financial and political quagmire continues unabated, while economic data from that troubled region indicate a deepening manufacturing downturn and a widening slump. Recent manufacturing data from China indicate that the path of the world’s second largest economy may...
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Cliff Waldman |
08/26/2012 |
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It was almost a disaster. For a few harrowing minutes, the descent of Apollo 11 onto the lunar surface rode the narrow path between triumph and tragedy. As noted in an article on the Scientific American website, the Commander of the mission, anticipating great difficulties, only put the odds of a successful moon landing at 50 percent. But even this fighter pilot, Korean War veteran, and self-proclaimed “nerdy engineer” could not have fully...
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Cliff Waldman |
08/19/2012 |
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Cutting-edge as it seems, the increasing sophistication and growing use of robotics is a story with an old theme. How will these evolving machines impact humans? Are they slowly replacing us in certain areas of manufacturing and in other sectors? The advance of non-human workers to startlingly new levels of capability both spotlights and complicates the very long-standing “man versus machine” discussion. Among other things, economists will...
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Cliff Waldman |
08/07/2012 |
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With all of the challenges of modern economics, the research program that seeks to understand the relationship between shifts in population parameters, such as age distribution, and long-term economic growth is persistently generating valuable insights on the evolution of modern economies and societies. The results show the strong role that demographics play in both short- and long-term economic activity, even to the point of influencing the...
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Cliff Waldman |
07/26/2012 |
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U.S. policymakers talk quite a bit these days about strengthening innovation as a crucial ingredient for a globally competitive manufacturing sector and a better day for the broad economy. But unless our kids stop falling behind in science and math relative to the young populations of other industrialized (and many developing) nations and unless we develop a strong science and engineering workforce, then all of the talk about an aggressive...
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Cliff Waldman |
07/06/2012 |
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With this morning’s release of the labor market report for June, the analytical spotlight shifts somewhat from structural labor market challenges, partially manifested in widely different employment prospects among age and educational attainment cohorts, to cyclical weakness. These most recent jobs data, more than anything, reflect the impact of a significant slowdown in the pace of U.S. economic growth from what was already an anemic clip...
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Cliff Waldman |
06/21/2012 |
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Text by Brandon O’Halloran
We all know the problem: Amidst a terrible job market, U.S. manufacturers are finding it difficult to fill thousands of well-paying jobs. According to a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, U.S. manufacturers are exploring aspects of Germany’s dual education system in an attempt to form programs to meet their demand for highly skilled labor. Companies are teaming up with local community colleges to educate and...
Categories: Business Management, Employee Relations, Operational Improvement
Cliff Waldman |
06/01/2012 |
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The employment situation report for May, along with other recent data, suggests that the modest improvement in the U.S. economy and the U.S. labor market that we celebrated earlier this year might be capitulating to growing world troubles. Net payroll job creation was a meager 69,000, about half of what is needed to even keep up with labor force growth. And the weak job creation performance in March and April got even weaker with revisions. ...
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Cliff Waldman |
05/20/2012 |
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Albert Einstein once joked that the “secret to creativity is knowing how to hide your sources.” Testifying to the broad meaning of this much-repeated line, relativity as a concept and a principle did not start with Einstein in 1905 but with Galileo in 1632. Principles, however, are just raw materials. It’s what Einstein did with Galileo’s concept that revolutionized centuries of physics.
Increasingly in the modern world, what applies in the...
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Cliff Waldman |
05/04/2012 |
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We need to do better. The recurring themes of inadequate recovery, sluggishness, and labor market challenges that are as deep as they are wide showed up in spades in the April U.S. jobs report. As economic growth appears to once again be slowing, the frustratingly tepid progress in a difficult employment picture continues. The fall in the unemployment rate to 8.1 percent during April, the lowest since January 2009, is certainly a welcome sign...
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Cliff Waldman |
05/02/2012 |
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As of late, a myriad of concerns about shortcomings in the U.S. workforce have taken center stage in the post-crisis U.S. dialogue. While labor market activity has improved modestly since the end of 2011, persistently sluggish U.S. economic growth has prevented the unemployment rate from falling below 8 percent and still leaves us more than 5 million jobs shy of the pre-recession peak for non-farm payroll employment. Remarkably, during this...
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Cliff Waldman |
04/24/2012 |
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A crisis-weary world has been nervously watching China’s economic growth slow, most recently to 8.1 percent for the first quarter of 2012. This is the weakest economic performance since the third quarter of 2009. Efforts to contain inflation along with a shaky global economy have been the generally accepted culprits, although analysts have been debating the “hard landing” versus “soft landing” scenarios. The key question is: Will China’s...
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Cliff Waldman |
04/10/2012 |
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I have long believed that every graduate economics student, and indeed every economist, should be required to spend at least some time thinking about India. The development path of this large, complex, and increasingly important emerging market has challenged even the best minds in economics. Joan Robinson, the great Cambridge economist and disciple of John Maynard Keynes, once joked that “Whatever you can rightly say about India, the...
Cliff Waldman |
04/06/2012 |
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The disappointing job growth in March, in more ways than one, is cold water after a warm winter. A net payroll gain of 120,000 jobs is a bit more than half of what economists were expecting and was less than half of the 246,000 average job gains seen during the prior three months.
It has been understandably tempting to conclude from recent data that there has been a sea change in the difficult U.S. labor market situation. But sea...
Categories: Economic Analysis, Employment Trends
Cliff Waldman |
03/15/2012 |
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“I was shocked when, in one day, the entire eastern coast of Japan was devastated by an 8.9 magnitude earthquake, which created a deadly 30-foot tsunami…,” proclaimed Richard Zajac, a senior at Whitfield High School in Creve Coeur, Missouri. “The Japanese people will be affected for years. I had to do something.” This remarkable 18-year-old visited Japan in September of last year to begin work on a documentary about the March 2011...
Categories: Economic Growth
Cliff Waldman |
03/15/2012 |
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This morning’s report on the employment situation in February 2012 all but puts 2011 behind us. We have now had three consecutive months of net gains in non-farm payroll employment above 200,000, much the same as in February 2011 through April 2011, before economically threatening events from Japan, the Middle East, the Eurozone, and even the U.S. derailed what appeared to be steady progress. As the impact of social uprisings, earthquakes...
Categories: Economic Growth, Economic Indicators
Cliff Waldman |
03/04/2012 |
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Neil deGrasse Tyson, an astrophysicist and director of the Hayden Planetarium, is clearly a scientist with a sense of timing. With last year’s swan song for the space shuttle program (the flight of Atlantis in July 2011), a modest recovery from a damaging global recession, and the approaching national election, Tyson undoubtedly knew that this would be an opportune moment to make an argument for a renewed U.S. investment in space. In the March...
Categories: U.S. Manufacturing