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 NEW: MAPI's annual update of  four in-depth economic reports, including our latest forecasts, on the regional industrial outlook for the United States and three major regions. In December, MAPI issued major updates to its economic forecasts for the United States and other parts of the industrial world. In the event that you missed the initial releases, we are re-sending the links. To access our year-end summary and outlook for the nine major regions click here.

MAPI QuickPoint - A glance at a building block of worldwide business data  MAPI QuickPoint

MAPI Analysis on Durable Goods: No Cheer This Holiday Season

The following is an analysis from Daniel J. Meckstroth, Chief Economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, regarding the industrial production report for November 2008.

“Manufacturing durable goods orders declined 1 percent in November 2008 after dropping 8.4 percent in October,” Meckstroth said.  “The very volatile and long-term aerospace orders declined sharply in the month.  An important driver of business equipment investment, nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, managed to increase 4.7 percent in November following a 6.6 percent decline the previous month.  If nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft remain unchanged in December, that would mean equipment orders fell at a 24 percent annual rate in fourth quarter 2008—an indicator of a severe recession. 

“Unfortunately, there is no cheery news about the state of manufacturing this holiday season,” he added.  “A dark cloud of pessimism has settled over the economy.  The markets for big-ticket consumer goods, like housing-related goods and automotive products, have collapsed as pink slips rain from nearly every private sector industry.  And as the durable goods report shows, businesses are cutting back on capital investment in response to low and falling operating rates.”

 
     

Issues in Brief (PDF)  Issues in Brief (PDF)
E-501Next Administration Wants To Make Electricity More ExpensiveGarrett A. Vaughn
President-elect Obama has tapped energy advisors who favor very aggressive actions to reduce energy use and associated  GHG emissions.  Many of those actions would target electric utilities because that U.S. economic sector emits the most GHGs than any other.  The experience with federal car mileage standards, which are likel to be repeated for the electric utility sector, illustrates that government mandates are very expensive ways for society to cut energy use and associated GHG emissions—and can threaten the long-term financial stability of the regulated industry.
E-500Corporate Social Responsibility: What's the Buzz?Cam Mackey
There can be no doubt that CSR and Sustainability are being embraced by an increasing number of companies. Several of MAPI's Councils recently collaborated on a survey to understand how our members are organizing to address these market forces and opportunities. This brief article summarizes the results of that survey and includes data on CSR goals and reporting practices, metrics, and the importance of CSR to member organizations.
E-499Showdown for the Chinese Trade Surplus in ManufacturesErnest H. Preeg
The Chinese trade surplus in manufactures was $56.6 billion in October, up 35 percent from October 2007, and the upward trend will continue despite the global economic slowdown.  This will intensify pressure for remedial action early next year as increased jobs in China from a growing surplus are at the expense of job losses in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere.
E-498Are We Giving Short Shrift to Thrift?Donald A. Norman
The personal savings rate has trended downward since the end of 1981 when it stood at 12.2 percent.  In recent years it generally has been less than 1 percent.  The low rate of savings is a problem in that savings help finance investment in plant, equipment, and technologies that drive economic growth. MAPI Economist Don Norman discusses measurement of personal savings rate and number of reasons behind its decline. 
E-497New Administration To Address Stimulus PackageTracy Hollingsworth
Taxes surely will be high on the agenda for the new Administration and the 111th Congress.   Tax reductions are a well-used tool in providing economic stimulus. The President-elect and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have signaled that they are likely to be part of stimulus legislation.  The tax plan outlined by the Obama campaign includes several provisions that would affect U.S. business, including proposals to increase taxation of active business income earned outside the United States.
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Retrieving Data

 MAPI Forecasts & Other Data Points

Exports    .9%
Imports    -4.6%

U.S. GDP

    -1%
Unemployment    7.7%
Industrial Production   -4.2%
Industrial Production (less high-tech)  -6.3%
MAPI members can access complete documents of these data points by going to their council homepage.

 Tax Council Survey

 

What function at your company leads the CARO process?

Environmental Management Council
SURVEY ON CONTINGENT ASSET RETIREMENT OBLIGATIONS

 Summary:

The majority of the 14 responses came from public companies (79%). All respondents are required to follow US GAAP for Environmental Liability Disclosures. All but one company’s EHS department has either medium (43%) or high (50%) involvement in the CARO process. A variety of functions lead the CARO process, although most are driven by the Accounting (36%) or Finance (29%) departments. Slightly more than half of respondents update their CARO on an ad-hoc basis. Most respondents also use a third-party consulting firm to help account for uncertainty in estimates.