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 QUICKPOINT

Analysis on ISM Report:  Index at ‘High End’ of Historic Range

The following is an analysis from Daniel J. Meckstroth, Ph.D., Chief Economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, regarding the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Index for February 2011:

“The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index increased to 61.4 percent February from 60.4 percent in the previous month.  At 61.4 percent, the ISM index is at the highest level in this recovery and at the high end of the historic range for this indicator,” Meckstroth said. “The last time the index was this high was in mid-2004 when the manufacturing sector decisively broke out of the 2001 recession.  All the important components, such as orders, production, employment, and exports are at lofty levels and improving from the previous month.
 
“Manufacturing production is clearly accelerating again following an inventory adjustment at the end of last year,” he added.  “Strong growth in business equipment investment, high prices for materials, and consumer-led rebound for motor vehicles and other durable goods purchases are driving domestic demand for manufacturing.  A robust export market for U.S. goods only enhances the positive impact on industrial production.”

 

 Manufacturing's Voice

Rare Earths and U.S. Manufacturing
Used in a host of high-tech products, rare earths are focusing attention once again on China's growing economic clout and on U.S. vulnerabilities. 

By Thomas J. Duesterberg

Rare-earth elements (REEs) are generally considered to comprise 15 to 17 chemical elements and are used in a wide variety of manufactured goods, from automobiles and fluorescent lights to precision-guided missiles and windmills. China now dominates production of REEs, and access to them and price have become major issues. Policymakers are not paying nearly enough attention to what is a significant problem.

The United States for many years was a leading producer of REE ores and refined products. Despite the commonly used name, these elements are not rare and can be found in most metals-producing countries. The United States dominated global production following World War II until the 1980s.

A series of circumstances in the 1970s and 1980s -- mainly the economic slowdown after two oil shocks; the collapse of the Soviet Union and release of some of its stockpiles; and opening of new mines in South America, China and Australia -- led to lower prices for REEs. Combined with significant environmental issues surrounding the mining and refining of the various elements, U.S. production began to wane. The rise of Chinese industrial might, together with relative indifference to environmental issues, gradually allowed China to increase its production, which further undermined the economics of U.S. producers.

China now controls over 95% of global REE production, giving it "market power," according to a 2010 Government Accountability Office report. As global economic demand grew, prices for some of these materials increased by 200% to 900%. China has cut its export quotas in half since 2005, and increased export tariffs by 15% to 25%, putting foreign users at a major competitive disadvantage.

In the advanced industrial economies, REEs (most of whose names I cannot pronounce) have become critical to a number of important industries, and the restricted supply is a cause of growing concern. The U.S. Department of Energy recently issued a report on the importance of REEs to the clean-energy technology industry. High-efficiency electric motors, the magnets that go into wind-energy systems, photovoltaic solar cells and lithium batteries used in hybrid cars all are dependent on REEs. Major automakers, especially Toyota but including General Motors and German firms, are so concerned about supply and price that they are investing substantial resources in developing motors that don't require REEs. Other industries, such as fiber optics, communications and computers, also are concerned about price and supply.

The U.S. Department of Defense, too, has begun to show concern, as REEs are important components in radar systems, precision guidance systems, avionics, satellites, night-vision equipment and communications.

The good news is that the United States and long-standing allies such as Canada and Australia have ample supplies of REE ores. The bad news is that the mining and processing of these elements requires enormous capital investment and technical expertise that needs further enhancement. Opening new mines and refineries could take as much as 15 years, although restarting an important California mine will take much less time. It is encouraging that multiple U.S. agencies are now studying policies needed to address the problem, and capital markets are beginning to validate the economic potential of this industry. But we are far from having an effective set of policies to assist U.S. industry in meeting the challenge. A few steps that could be taken include:

1) Simplify and accelerate the regulatory process for new facilities.

2) Support research into alternatives to REEs in the manufacturing of important products such as engines, batteries and communications equipment.

3) Take a very serious look at the national security implications of sourcing REEs from China (or Russia) and develop alternatives specifically tailored to the needs of our national defense.

4) Work more closely with our allies such as Canada, Japan, Australia and South Korea to coordinate approaches to the supply problem. These could include more sharing of research into alternative technologies and verifying that China meets its obligations under the rules of the WTO to refrain from using its dominant position for national advantage.

Read text at IndustryWeek

 

 New Leadership

Stephen Gold, President and Chief Executive Officer

 The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI has named Stephen Gold as President and Chief Executive Officer effective March 1, 2011, it was announced recently by Executive Committee Chairman Timothy H. Powers, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Hubbell Incorporated (Shelton, CT). 

He succeeds long-time CEO Thomas J. Duesterberg, Ph.D., who announced his intention to retire from MAPI at its 2010 annual meeting.

Gold has served since 2006 as senior vice president of operations for the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) where he provided management oversight of the trade association’s 50 business units, member recruitment and retention, international operations, business development, and meeting planning.  In addition, he was the staff lead for the Board-level Section Affairs Committee and Strategic Initiatives Committee.

“Stephen has an excellent background and is well qualified to lead the Manufacturers Alliance to a new and exciting future framing the business challenge of worldwide manufacturing,” Powers said.

Gold has an extensive background in business-related organizations and has represented U.S. manufacturers for much of his career.  Prior to his work at NEMA, Gold spent five years at the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), serving as vice president of allied associations and executive director of the Council of Manufacturing Associations.  During his tenure he helped launch NAM’s Campaign for the Future of U.S. Manufacturing and served as executive director of the Coalition for the Future of U.S. Manufacturing.

Before joining NAM, Gold practiced law in Washington, D.C., at the former firm of Collier Shannon Scott, where he specialized in regulatory law, working in the consumer product safety practice group and on energy and environmental issues in the government relations practice group.

Gold has also served as associate director/communications director at the Tax Foundation in Washington and as director of public policy at Citizens for a Sound Economy, a free-market advocacy group.  He began his career in Washington as a lobbyist for the Grocery Manufacturers of America and in the 1980s served in the communications department of Chief Justice Warren Burger’s Commission on the Bicentennial of the U.S. Constitution.

Gold holds a Juris Doctor (cum laude) from George Mason University School of Law, a master of arts degree in history from George Washington University, and a bachelor of science degree (magna cum laude) in history from Arizona State University.  He is a Certified Association Executive (CAE).

 Duesterberg joined the Alliance in 1999 and has led the organization to a period of significant growth and enhanced reputation.  During his tenure he further established MAPI as a widely respected public policy, economic research and executive education organization.  Duesterberg will assist in the transition as senior advisor through his departure on June 30, 2011.

 “Tom has done a terrific job for the Alliance for more than a decade leading the economic studies and framing the discussion of our manufacturing throughout the world,” Powers said.  “We thank Tom for all of this effort.”

 

 

 
 

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